2016. Working papers

Oļegs Tkačevs, Kārlis Vilerts

Working paper

ABSTRACT
This paper studies the impact of sovereign bond yields on fiscal discipline against the background of unprecedentedly low interest rates in advanced economies brought about by ultra-expansionary monetary policies of recent years. By employing the panel data econometric approach for a sample of OECD, EU and euro area countries over the period 1980–2014, the study suggests a positive and statistically significant impact of long-term sovereign bond yields on primary balances (PBs), indicating that a decrease in borrowing costs leads to a statistically significant deterioration of fiscal balances. The findings herein also suggest that falling bond yields pass on to fiscal balances through increases in government expenditure rather than revenue reduction. From the economic policy perspective, these findings imply that monetary policy measures resulting in ultra-low interest rates may cause negative side effects for fiscal discipline.

Keywords: fiscal policy, fiscal reaction function, sovereign bond yields, panel data
JEL codes: E62, H62

Elena Bobeica, Styliani Christodoulopoulou, Oļegs Tkačevs

Working paper

ABSTRACT
This paper studies the importance of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade flows of euro area countries. A standard error correction framework shows that price competitiveness is a relatively more important driver of trade flows outside the euro area as compared to those within the monetary union, especially for exports, that tend to be more sensitive to relative prices than imports. We consider various measures of competitiveness and conclude that it is difficult to single out one that outperforms the others. Using an encompassing test, measures based on labour costs appear to contain relatively more information for trade flows, particularly for exports outside the euro area.
The key policy implication is that, in order to adjust competitiveness disequilibria within the monetary union, measures, such as structural policies fostering non-price competitiveness should be pursued in the deficit countries besides those aimed at price and cost adjustments.

Keywords: price and cost competitiveness, intra- and extra-euro area trade, error correction model
JEL codes: F14, F15, F41

Andrejs Bessonovs, Oļegs Tkačevs

Working paper

ABSTRACT
This paper studies the relationship between inflation and economic slack in Latvia with a particular focus on its time variation. The results suggest that the Phillips curve for Latvia had been steepening before the crisis against the backdrop of rising inflation. In the more recent years, there has been tentative evidence of the Phillips curve flattening as Latvia's economy entered a period of very low inflation. If the current trend of an even weaker response of inflation to economic activity in Latvia persists and proves to be statistically significant, unconventional monetary policy instruments may be of limited effectiveness to control inflation in Latvia. This calls for structural reforms aimed at increasing competition and reducing price stickiness.

Keywords: inflation, Phillips curve, business cycles, Bayesian estimation
JEL codes: C32, C51, E31, E52

Viktors Ajevskis

Working paper

ABSTRACT
This paper proposes a ZLB/shadow rate term structure of interest rates model with both unobservable factors and those of non-standard monetary policy measures. The non-standard factors include the ECB's holdings of APP and LTROs as well as their weighted average maturities. The model is approximated by the Taylor series expansion and estimated by the extended Kalman filter, using the sample from July 2009 to September 2015. The results show that the 5-year OIS rate at the end of September 2015 was about 60 basis points lower than it would have been in the case of the absence of the non-standard monetary policy measures.

Keywords: term structure of interest rates, lower bound, non-linear Kalman filter, non-standard monetary policy measures
JEL codes: C24, C32, E43, E58, G12

Konstantīns Beņkovskis, Eduards Goluzins, Oļegs Tkačevs

Working paper

ABSTRACT
This paper describes the first CGE model for Latvia that consists of 32 industries, 55 products and seven categories of final users. To construct the model we use Latvia's National Supply and Use tables for 2011 from the WIOD database. Special attention is devoted to the fiscal block: the model consists of five government expenditure types and five revenue sources, including such four major taxes as the personal income tax (PIT), state social insurance mandatory contributions (SSIMC), value added tax (VAT) and excise tax. We also introduce an endogenous shadow economy, the size of which depends on the level of tax rates and economic activity. These features of the model allow us to obtain rich and detailed conclusions about the effect of several fiscal measures on Latvia's economy, both in aggregate and by sector.

Keywords: CGE model, Latvia, fiscal policy
JEL codes: D58, C68, H2, H6